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The Whisky Show – the clue’s in the name. So why was it that during my visit there recently, people kept offering me rum, and I returned with a number of samples from the West Indies and Central America?

After some years of creeping success, it seems the premium end of the sector is set to come in to its own – and plenty are suggesting that the potential rehabilitation of Cuba into the American market will be the starting gun for a trend that could see an increasingly diverse range of premium rums receive the same sort of respect as single malt whiskies or tequilas do now. Experts point to the same diversity of tastes within the rum category, and argue that consumers have already moved past the dark, light or white rum segmentation.

We’ve been here before, of course. A few years ago whisky distillery Bruichladdich even attempted to match a range of West Indian and Central American rums with the taste profiles of Scottish single malt whisky.

But there is a feeling that the time is right, the consumer suitably engaged and the drinks of sufficient quality for premium rum to take its place in the sun. And with the added spice of a resurgent Cuba – and, more pertinently, the incentive for cash-rich Havana Club to win over the US – Cuban rum would seem to have a ready-made battering ram to lead its assault. And once the door is open, it’s game on for premium whisky in general.

So might it happen? I put four general scenarios before a panel of rum experts: Nick Blacknell, Havana Club marketing director; Karina Hermansen, Berry Bros & Rudd global brand director; Peter Holland, the Floating Rum Shack; Benjamin Jones, Rhum Clement and Rhum JM US director; Jordi Xifra Keysper, Beveland marketing manager; and Nadege Perrot, Modern Spirits brand manager.

This is what they said:

If and when Cuba starts trading internationally in rum it will take market share from existing producers

Benjamin Jones: When Cuban rum enters the US market, I believe it will make a great and positive impact for all premium rum. Initially it will take a little market share away from all brands, most notably Bacardi. The competition will be welcomed. Cuban rum will have a longer negative effect only against other rums that are similar in style, but in the long term the US rum market is growing only in the premium segments and is expanding now that the consumer is more familiar with the variety of unique regional styles of rum, particularly the heritage brands representing very distinctive segments of the world of rum. There will be a wide open door for other premium craft and heritage Cuban rums to enter the US market.

Nick Blacknell: Across the board, consumers are increasingly buying brands they feel an emotional connection with – brands that have a story to tell and that do it in a compelling way. With our rich Cuban heritage, Havana Club has plentiful stories to tell and we are looking forward to sharing them with Havana Club fans around the world in the months and years to come. If the trade embargo between Cuba and the US is lifted, there would definitely be a strong opportunity for Havana Club in the US.

Jordi Keysper: It’s true they have started to open the market, but it will not be quick. It will take two to three years to start to do some interesting business. Of course, Cuban rum will be an interesting business because they are proud of their products and the quality of these products. The leading Cuban rum (Havana Club) will lead this trading because it has more muscle to do it. The rest of the brands will follow, trying to achieve some market share.

Peter Holland: As much as I’d like to see the rum category jump forward in terms of sales, it’s not going to happen. With authentic Cuban rum entering the market it’s inevitable that some rum brands will lose out. It’s a shame, but the United States is afraid that something new, something Cuban and something exciting will ensure a slash in sales elsewhere. Perhaps a cull of the weakest is a good thing though?

If and when Cuba is open for business it will open the Cuban market up and create new demand for existing suppliers

BJ: Absolutely. I expect any major international beverage alcohol vendor who does not have a standard mixing and/or sipping rum in its portfolio to go to Cuba and contract distillers to create a Cuban rum brand, particularly with how the rum market is already growing at the luxury levels. I would expect small companies and even large companies to organise themselves and get into the Cuban rum business.

NB: Yes, and the positive image of Cuban rum in the US and the eagerness of the bartenders to serve it suggests a bright future for this category. The US market is the world’s first premium rum market so the challenge is enormous for Cuban rum and especially for Havana Club.

JK: I think the opening of the Cuban market will arrive first in the Hispanic zones such as Miami and Los Angeles. Then, of course, metropolitan zones that can use Cuban rum for cocktails such as Mojitos. I’m not sure if it will create new demand.

PH: For sure. We’ll be told that the brands are ready and that standards won’t drop. Of course I’m concerned that quality will drop in order to ‘stretch’ the rum just that little bit further. A number of brands don’t sell themselves based on a numerical age statement, preferring the ‘we blend to a flavour profile’ approach. This may be true, but I’ll be looking to compare and contrast over the next few years just to see how that pans out in reality.

If and when Cuba starts freely trading internationally it will create a new interest in the rum category in general, and everybody will benefit

PH: Cuba is already trading internationally, albeit without the US market. That market is significant and will create impact but the rest of the world’s view on Cuban rum is pretty solid – why would the US’s view make a difference? I really hope the rest of the world doesn’t rely on the US to tell us how to enjoy our booze.

Nadége Perrot: The opening of Cuba will surely create a curiosity for Cuban rums and for the category in general. Consumers will try out Cuban rums but I don’t think it will penalise other brands.

JK: Of course it will create an interest  but we will see if this will persist. Havana Club has to lead this movement as a leader of Cuban rum around the world. But then, there are other brands that can offer an alternative to the US distributors.

In the future, with so many diverse and exciting rums from different islands and central American countries, rum may well go down the route of tequila and single malt whisky and offer consumers a varied and diverse portfolio

NB: The rum category is currently the most under-premiumised spirit category. The situation is the same as whiskies or vodkas – there are so many different geographical origins, even more in rums. That’s why rum has difficulties in establishing itself as a high-end spirit and a credible alternative to other major categories. The opportunities for premiumisation are clear. Rum has all the credentials to step up as the next experience in luxury spirits. Premium spirits have authenticity, heritage and character.

Karina Hermansen: Indeed. We are seeing that the category is moving towards greater variety driven by a high degree of consumer experimentation.

We experience that rum is moving away from having historically been associated with the high-energy drinking occasion to being considered enjoyment-focused on the taste experience. Penny Blue which has been described as a whisky drinker’s rum, is greatly benefitting from this wave where our consumers already are or become rum collectors and show a high degree of loyalty towards Penny Blue.

We see a boom in new rum connoisseurs who come from across our markets, thus underscoring the development of a rum sipping culture outside the local rum markets.

Our spiced rum Pink Pigeon is also riding the wave of consumers searching for different rum styles.

Our origin in Mauritius, and the fact that Mauritius has a rich rum history where the rum was produced well before it was taken to the Caribbean, is an extra dimension that adds to the credibility of our rum portfolio.

NP: One sign is that we see a community of rum experts growing worldwide, and more and more people are following these influencers. Moreover, around the world consumers’ interest in rums is growing and, in parallel, brands do their best to educate about their specificities and their elaboration.

JK: Maybe. But we have to take into account that in Central America and South America there are local products such as tequila, mezcal, pisco that are very strong and growing in terms of variety.

BH: The parallel is closest with whisky. Rum is segmented already and will be further organised into different categories separated by profile and style not much different to how whiskies are today, ie bourbon, Canadian, Irish, scotch (blend and single malt), and international (including Japanese).

PH: Jeez – I hope so. The style of rum in your glass is influenced by many things, from production style through to cultural perspective. Identification and celebration of the USP that the different rums offer is everything. I try to get this perspective over in my trainings. After all the drinking experience is far more than just the amazing chemistry in your glass.