Welcome to 2026 and the Year of the Horse, a Chinese zodiac sign synonymous with progress and vitality. Yet whether the coming year in travel retail turns out to be more of a trot than a healthy canter remains to be seen.

With normal supplies resuming in Chinese duty-free stores, Cognac brands will certainly be hoping for a better year and have once again leaned heavily into the Chinese New Year holiday season, with horse-themed Lunar New Year editions rolling out to Asian hubs.

Martell’s cross-portfolio “Year of the Horse Limited Editions Collection” is an impressive example of this crop of Chinese New Year offerings, supported by a full omnichannel campaign, prominent GTR activations, and a high-impact artist collaboration designed to appeal to the growing cohort of Asian travellers seeking statement gifting options.

Featuring packaging bearing illustrations from the renowned Chinese artist He Datian, famed for his depictions of horses, the new range includes designs for three travel-exclusive expressions, as well as Martell Cordon Bleu, the best-selling XO cognac in travel retail. Available in major Asian hubs, as well as Melbourne, Sydney and Los Angeles airports, the Collection will be on shelf until the end of March.

The signs of a more robust recovery in international travel by mainland Chinese this year are encouraging. The latest m1nd-set Business Intelligence Service forecast, for instance, reveals that Asia Pacific will be the engine of global air-traffic growth in 2026, with international departures rising 9.3% to reach 588 million, accounting for a quarter of the global market.

Drilling into specific Asian nationalities, Chinese and Taiwanese outbound travellers are expected to grow by 13%, with low double-digit increases also predicted for passengers from Singapore, Macau, Cambodia and Myanmar. Major Chinese hubs are tipped to post the strongest performances globally, with Beijing Capital forecast to grow 23.6%, Guangzhou by 21.4% and Shanghai Pudong by 20.9%.

Yet any regional optimism must be tempered to a degree by the onset of political tension between Japan and China last year, centred on the new Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s controversial comments on Taiwan. The ongoing dispute is already reshaping passenger flows and will continue to do so well into 2026, according to recent AI-powered modelling from aviation research consultancy Air4casts.

After consecutive years of strong growth in Chinese tourist arrivals to Japan, Air4casts predicts they could plummet by nearly 50%. The international hubs of Kansai and Narita, both traditionally important locations for duty-free liquor sales, are likely to be hit hard, with each potentially losing 110,000 departing passengers per month at the nadir of the downturn. Alternative regional holiday destinations such as South Korea and Singapore are likely to benefit as Chinese group tour bookings to Japan continue to be cancelled in significant numbers.

While I expect China to have a better year in 2026, once again India is likely to turn more heads among travel retail industry decisionmakers. The Macallan’s decision late last year to open the Speyside malt’s first pop-up airport stores in the country, at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International and Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, was a further sign of the industry’s continued pivot towards India.

Beverage alcohol volumes in Indian travel retail grew 13% in 2024, according to the IWSR, with affluent Indian travellers demonstrating a strong appetite for premium single malts. The growth curve is likely to have continued in 2025, and it will be fascinating to see this year if other premium spirit categories can prosper at Indian airports in the same way as single-malt Scotch.

The Macallan pop-ups also hint at another important trend impacting the travel-retail drinks business: in the ultra-competitive and confined airport retail setting, brands increasingly need to invest in standalone pop-ups or even permanent boutiques to stand out from the crowd. However expensive, a branded gondola or wall-bay is no longer enough.

Last month, for instance, Campari Group unveiled its first Milano House of Campari shop-in-shop at Milan Malpensa airport in collaboration with travel retailer Avolta. The permanent 26-square-metre space celebrates the famous red herbal liqueur’s link with its home city of Milan. It features its own bar dispensing a range of Negroni-style cocktails and a “Digital Negroni Wheel”, a fun way for travellers to learn more about one of the world’s most famous cocktails.

The digital element of the Campari store is symptomatic of the tech-driven direction of many high-profile airport drinks promotions, and this will only accelerate as AI becomes more integrated into the travel-retail ecosystem. Diageo Global Travel’s Johnnie Walker Black Label “1 of 1 Design” campaign in partnership with Dubai Duty Free last month was a high-profile example of how AI is making its presence felt in every corner of the travel-retail industry.

The campaign comprised 50,000 unique AI-generated Black Label bottle illustrations inspired by Dubai, supported by a dedicated pop-up and full digital amplification. As consumers increasingly prioritise exclusivity, personalisation and immersive content, AI tools like this will enable brands to deliver one-of-a-kind retail propositions at a volume and velocity previously unimaginable.

Where this leaves traditional packaging design agencies is an open question, but expect 2026 to bring more AI-driven activations, smarter targeting, and dynamic packaging formats crafted specifically for travellers.